1. nostalgia, not to ask: What the experts, to judge you on the housing market is based on what?
when the ice: When the housing needs of the consumer demand for housing, the decision price of real purchasing power of residents, usually prices and household disposable income to represent. so-called ability to pay the family of the lower housing; ratio of the smaller, indicating that households capacity to pay the higher of the housing.
when demand for housing as an investment, the decision price is the strength of housing rentals, rental international than usually to represent. The so-called rental per square meter than the use of the area is the monthly rent per square meter construction area and the ratio between housing prices. the international measure of housing well-functioning rental 1:200-1:300 than standard. And At present, China's housing prices far beyond the international warning line. to Beijing, for example, the rental is more than the basic 1:500-1:700 within this range. Many people are buying houses for rental if not enough Repayment of bank interest, even in the house was also unable to recover the investment quickly scrapped. This shows that the investment value of housing is very low.
when the housing as speculative demand, depending on the costs to buy are able to get rid of the spread, which is often determined by the expectations that house prices rose in anticipation, the speculative demand for the contrary, decreased.
2. nostalgia, not to ask: Ask the second expert, who said housing prices in China what is Operator: Government, housing prices, experts, or when people
Ice: Our real estate market is a highly monopolized market, the combination of power and capital is very close. In this case, the price is distorted, developers and other vested interests the government and the long-term price-fixing, fish buyers, but this manipulation there is a limit, once the breakthrough critical point, prices will remain the decision by the purchasing power, will achieve reasonable return.
3. nostalgia, does not ask: Will the old experts, as Mao's remarks? afraid Friends of the shelling circle?
when Ice A: In the context of the Government of tolerance, freedom of speech in the ring. Maolao not who remarks that want to talk about will be able to speak out, and if so, the famous I'm afraid not Maolao out.
4. cloud drop of rain Q: Mr. Jiang spicy, more beautiful women around, is not want to buy a Second Suite three suites ah?
spicy ginger A: this is true, may help the developers can not sell the house to solve the problem!
5. Q: How to see Guangzhou 15?
chopper A: Guangdong, in the Indian summer of 15, fueled speculation in the property market, the people extract the market, this seems a bad thing, it is actually a good thing: First, Hong Kong, speculators and speculators did not come outside, indicating that the financial markets around storm, has lost the ability to speculation in the Pearl River Delta; Second, some speculators have already fled the background, only Shenzhen in March to 100 in the secondary market fled million, that they own the market outlook is bearish; third false impression of the property market is being opened, more and more people have to see the nature of the problem of the rising volume, and now as long as the volume do not increase, prices will again return.
developers are not forced on the Chinese economy road to ruin is dead can not be reconciled, we need to do is to tell you the true state of the market.
6. 123 a person asked: good activities, held a lot of hope. I ask two teachers, second and third tier cities in the next few years How to price movements.
when the Ice: If the status quo economy, falling house prices; if there is inflation, house prices sideways; In the event of serious inflation, housing prices. Overall, the present contains a higher price bubbles, even if there is inflation, housing prices in the name of prices upward, the actual price is also down.
7. not mistaken is the industry to ask: 1) construction of affordable housing in Shanghai in the end to of how, and there are no real plans to implement in accordance with specific data on how, there is no water to ���� people? 2), it seems to enter a short deflation (personal feeling), but the currency's junk is sure to bring a large-scale inflation , when this transition occurs, the impact on housing prices?
when the Ice A: affordable housing in Shanghai is relatively backward, mainly in the lip, the development of land for affordable housing plans Some turned into commercial space. but because of affordable housing in the event of default are too many for too long, the central authorities have recognized the seriousness of the problem, the local government in the central pressure, had to act, Shanghai, too.
agree Your point of view. Now is the deflation stage, it must be massive inflation, the occurrence of this transition requires a series of conditions, when the last time when conditions are ripe, that is, deflation, when the rapid transition to inflation. The next question I The author discusses the special, because it is a big issue, a few words difficult to say. However, in this period approached, the meat is first manifested as grain prices. Please note that this signal.
8. Q: how to look at small cities prices?
spicy ginger A: small cities, housing prices relative to the big city, the bubble is relatively small, but does not mean no, it is worth noting that: the phenomenon of small city more serious corruption; supporting small city house , property and quality are to be improved, it should have 20% of the decline, that 2500 will be in 2000 under the more reasonable.
9. Oriental Plastic Q: When will Beijing's housing prices to drop to a reasonable interval, because Beijing's rigid housing demand is very strong, not much change in house prices recently.
when the Ice A: Beijing's housing prices rose too fast these years because it has exceeded the cumulative bubble bear market force. In addition, the so-called rigid demand, I need more about it. Many people have the potential demand as a rigid demand. potential demand, also known as implicit demand is that customers on certain types of products or services because of certain products or markets fluctuations at any time refuse or use other alternatives to the demand generated by the case of behavior. rigidity is relatively flexible, the rigidity of the demand is the relationship between commodity supply and demand needs less affected by the prices, or price-insensitive demand. When the price is high to a certain extent the demand for rigid foundation upon which to exist, because the rigid requirements established under certain conditions required: the tolerable range. in short, is the purchasing power. Beijing's rigid demand in the present circumstances obviously distorted and exaggerated by the developer. In fact, including Ren these people did not understand in the end what is a rigid demand.
10. Q: How can I change the trend of housing prices?
spicy ginger A: Housing Price fundamental improvement, conscience and responsibility from the developer to change the beginning, I am here today to do the same stage of a radio program, said the developer claimed that business is business: lack of responsibility to the people, lack of business ethics and the bottom line, you win the whole world what would?
11.Rosemary Q: good teachers, two questions: 1 When will housing prices in Beijing dropped to a reasonable price 2, such as third-line cities of Yichang, as the tourist city along the Yangtze River , 2007 and 2008 gains amazing price, ask whether there is the possibility of lower prices. Thank you!
chopper A: Beijing's housing prices are a focus of our concern, the Beijing municipal government also canceled the outer limit order without authorization, has no effect. However, Beijing's developers, agents, property speculators are now pushed to form a complete set of prices, speculation, illegal taking of bank funds industry chain, this is very troublesome. they have the ability to pushed up prices in the short term, as long as prices do not fall 20%, their behavior is not easy to expose, once exposed, the banks have been kidnapped. To promote the rational prices return to Beijing, the resistance is very large. According to my observation without the intervention of the central government, our appeal is very limited. However, the central government this year is not expected to introduce new policy, so, many experts agree that this round of Beijing housing prices to begin to decline next year. < br> now suffering some third tier cities. because the third-tier cities is not room for speculation, too much pre-hype, there are likely to face a slump, local government is not Huitianzhili's. Xinjiang, Yinchuan and other places housing prices began to lag up, face the depth adjustment.
12. Columbus fans Q: I think, in the moment, with China's national conditions, should do to solve the housing problem: the first is to allow and encourage and support people from the housing, cooperative housing. more suggested that in today's high prices, like a ray of spring; unfortunately not from the mouth of the government officials. I ask you: this constructive initiative mm in today's society, is there any hope? Is it possible to achieve? Can look ahead hh When
Ice: Yes, you're right. to allow, encourage and support residents from the housing, cooperative housing will solve the housing problem is the way forward, my previous article of this issue in detail. In self-help housing, cooperative housing. In addition to market segmentation, can refer to the following scale hh business itself does not build a house, not housing. In the real estate industry chain, plans to do by the relevant government departments, the design unit is responsible for the design, construction of housing units built by the developers to play only a . and this , which have a very systematic policy support from the housing, such as preferential loans and so on. residents from the building to help the government solve the housing problem, but also respect the public opinion, the Government is really no reason to oppose the self-help housing and cooperative housing. to provisions prohibiting the free love and the like all have to go to the dating agency seeking a marriage license was issued as a deformed culture brokers, this practice is inhumane.
13.Rosemary Q: This year is the financial crisis The next year, should be said to have greater impact and influence, why not this year, also to next year's Beijing housing prices to fall? What is this mystery inside you?
chopper A: No mystery, but they are pondering the government enough, that government can not maintain high prices, there are a lot of money out of bank lending, and finally, the flow of these funds are not the real economy, but into the property market and the stock market, repeat 2007 errors, and good financial environment is not the same , almost no foreign funds, domestic stock and property markets continue to flow, the real economy will be unsustainable, the unemployment rate will rise, generating capacity will be reduced, as long as the derivative bubble to the community after the outbreak of the crisis may be, the central government will not consider this point. The medical problem solving is a signal, however, adopt the same means to solve the housing problem will take time.
14. Columbus, fans ask: mm not included in the national real estate industry in planning the revitalization of the top ten; mm so that people see the power of public opinion; see all the important calls. If prices remain high because of land price formation mechanisms; if there is a large proportion, big reason is the participation and take the lead in mm due to Government; Will the government withdraw mm mm mm economic benefits of real estate possible? hh
can look ahead when the Ice: On the government to withdraw the issue, is the market who strongly advocated chemical. The problem I see is this: The Government of the exit Exit, exit should never quit. For example, chemical market in the past who advocated the medical, education, housing market is almost entirely a failure, because they had the responsibility of the government, due to non-elected officials, but also lack of supervision, they themselves lack the power to provide public goods, do you suggest to make it out, the errors of its desire to meet it? Therefore, some chemical by extreme market is harmful. the market is not omnipotent. like Mao Yushi issues raised ticket prices, that is, advocates of extreme market a typical example of damage to people's livelihood. Mao Yushi believes that train overcrowding, queuing for tickets, tickets traffickers rampant, is due to the low fares, and therefore, he said: fares rose one o'clock accordance with economic laws, to set the fares in the market equilibrium, the above problem is basically not happen. no major changes in passenger capacity, alternative vehicles, less (if ticket price increase, bus passenger fares will be raised) case, the rigid requirements at this stage it is difficult to really come down on price, because, people also get the car ah! can not solve any problems to the last, but rather so that vested interests got cheaper.
on housing security, the Government should not withdraw, it is incumbent upon it.
the other hand, is a market that part, the Government must quit, not the same as the vendors from which to reap maximum benefits, because it is the taxpayers to provide it to provide services, not from the people who make money of.
So I think China should to solve the housing problem, the most important is also the right of the people of independent housing, but also to the people, in this case, the Government does not spend money, people can afford to pay a small amount of money can be a good solution to most of the their housing problems. Therefore, the government pays out to people is a million affordable housing can not be canceled, affordable housing has many problems, for example, large size. For example, many fall into the hands of government officials. We should think so, affordable housing, corruption, lack of transparency led to the first, second, because too little affordable housing supply as a result of scarce resources. If greater transparency, increase the supply of affordable housing and related issues can be resolved. mm me the increase mentioned in the supply of affordable housing is a right in fact, that the Government out of place, people pay for housing rights in the land after the government, what grade people are willing to build a house, is their right. This effectively means the withdrawal of government power, rather than strengthen its affordable housing opportunities for corruption in the. I mentioned affordable housing and now people see the deformity is vicious and affordable housing is a big difference .
15. Xiao-Li Q: spicy ginger teacher in Hangzhou suburb of this expanding city why not look at it, in fact, better than the West Lake of poor environment?
spicy ginger A: The problem of the expansion joint development, is the developer of the first volume calculation rates, relocation costs, and create a bubble of space and go to the government listing requirements, listed first, always urged businessmen, not by the Government in advance of the urban renewal plan, urban planning is just naive, and finally will be the developer ; change important to get rid of upper part of the officials said, housing prices will drop immediately.
chopper A: Yes, local corruption too powerful. We should lead the Central Government announced the official property. This time, I put the Shenzhen Land and Resources Bureau will be a harsh military, forcing them to open the symbol off the mortgage, and they dare not open. This shows that officials of the property as long as the sun, can prevent many crimes.
17. Invincible fat panda Q: Thanks for the ring organized such a good event, now I have raised questions about: 1) the collapse of the real estate industry in China will probably happen at what time? 2), the real estate industry on China's banking sector after the collapse of local government revenue have much negative impact? 3), after the house price increase is effective in the purchasing power of the people? financial crisis continued to deepen in the case of .4), the radical real estate bubble burst, is there a third-party funds such as the foreign consortium of funds into the Chinese market, the real estate mergers and land acquisition? 5), real estate trends in China's financial crisis is undoubtedly an important indicator of deeper or warmer, when the decline of the Chinese real estate industry in China after the current round of financial crisis will fully outbreak? Thank you both for the President to give me such an opportunity to ask questions, maybe my question is not appropriate to mention, in any case asked the two take care of themselves, work happy.
when the Ice A: Everything has a limit, China The real estate is a predatory industry, vested interests of the people Qiaoguxisui to meet own interests. This is the result of Chinese middle class has never been able to form one of the important reasons. The formation of the middle class is an important country forward basis, the loss of this base, the Chinese economy to the lack of sustainability. in Beijing, big cities like Shanghai, a house to destroy a middle class is a very common thing. This predatory when developed to a certain extent, it will risks facing collapse.
world, no country like China, to a predatory industry (of course, the predatory mainly in the domestic performance was so blatant only) as a pillar industry, people are high-tech, is a military product, is IT, so people's pillar industry in the benefits to the people more and more, while the Chinese people as a pillar industry is gradually declining quality of life.
purchasing power of house prices and the public dock, is activated The only way to volume. At present, many local governments prohibit developers to cut prices, the developer of the price for punishment, this rebellious market, destroyed the livelihood approach will ultimately pay the price for the real estate industry.
is because the Chinese real estate these problems, two years foreign investment has been quietly withdrawn, a number of foreign-funded enterprises in the cast room, expect foreign investment in China real estate is in vain to save.
real estate decline, the biggest problem is that China has What could be as a pillar industry? because rising house prices, eroding people's purchasing power and domestic demand, China's economy has reached a dead end. is imperative that the abolition of the pillars of the status of the real estate industry to change the predatory real estate to promote its residential function, return to the rational nature of people's livelihood, so that the benefit of the people in the industry, rather than a tool to harm people. Only in this way, the real estate to the healthy development of China's economy in order to maintain sustainability. I've said previously, since the building, and cooperation building also will promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
18. want a home Q: In the above mentioned abandoned boast: rather than economic issues. trying to solve this is economically impossible. development, in accordance with the laws of social development, without a big political change is very slow.
19. Xiao-Li Q: I personally feel that China's demand for a house there too rigid, although we are also desperate to see the room Price is a bit too high, but it can be a little loose, someone will try to buy, developers should also see this, so learn to be strong, and some other private capital or foreign capital will not easily give up this one fertilizer meat, so they are used to make money, and because of these people he does not put money in here, no other channels to obtain the benefits as soon as possible if the real economy can not start the next round of growth, many people still will not fund transferred from the real estate investment, then the decline in house prices really do not see the hope of a return to normal price! If there is no central government and local government support, the people will not see hope, but if do, they not yet? In short, I do not think prices will not have much to fall. hope that teachers will be based on reliable survey data to prove your point?
when ice: It really is a factor, the people were robbed swept fear, especially soaring housing prices in the past few years, so that people like living in a nightmare which, in the psychological formation of a huge shadow, the developer made an unprecedented manipulation of the surgery great success! The problem is that rigid demand purchasing power must be within tolerable limits, and, over the years, as of now the price of view, it is a serious oversupply of housing, but people deceived by false information to live.
example, with regard to Beijing, many people that Beijing's land is scarce, prices will not fall. But the truth may be quite different. Mr. Yu Linggang was calculated: Beijing resident population of about 20,000,000 (Beijing Mayor Wang Qishan, Beijing is striving resident population in 2010 control in 1600 million, referred to here is the estimated 20 million total population in 2020), 1650 square kilometers of urban construction land (including construction land area of the data from the State Council for approval of the Beijing City Master Plan 2020). If The simplest method of calculation, in accordance with the minimum of 28 square meters of living space per capita, which is a family of three to 84 square meters of residential buildings in residential minimum standards, Beijing's 20 million people in 28 square meters x2000 million = 5.6 billion square meters of housing, in accordance with Estimation of average volume, you need 320 million square meters, which is 320 square kilometers of land for housing construction. even occupy the high percentage of luxury, and Beijing has only square kilometers of land for housing construction. theoretically apply to most homes, not government approval 1650 square kilometers of urban construction land 28%!
Therefore, the developer said the land shortage, land scarcity is the gimmick, and related data, the general public can not see. researchers can see to, but they fear the pressure of developers, not willing to speak out. The scholar Dai Jianzhong come out with the developer PK, Ren is anxious to provoke him. In fact, scholars are developers getting mad or not, should stand tell the truth, the so-called specializing in surgery, expert research more thoroughly, and defense of justice is the bounden duty of scholars, intellectuals, especially in the general fall today, it is especially important.
20. Ancient Greece Q: 3: In the current political system and the interests of the pattern, the inevitable decline in housing prices that you really have confidence in it? contrary to your wishes if you may be considered to bear the moral risk? it also holds a sweat? Sorry, proposed this acute problem. because it is the same mission. Do not avoid ah!
chopper A: As for me, in the current political system and the pattern of interests, the more need is a large number of people who plead. We want to push Chinese society process, we must make some sacrifices, but the decline in house prices is that we are not driven by the central government is more anxious than we are. A few times, once in my usual batch of the Kingdom of Hangzhou Municipal Committee, Beijing's friend told me draft text of my blog the next day into the Zhongnanhai; This time we expose the lies Cheng Siwei, the Xinhua News Agency in the form of a small internal reference to the Office of reporting, can be imagined, and now the information is highly developed ah. Despite We do not know, what we call what role, however, continue to express our views as long as, there will always influence social change of the day.
As for the price, no power can push housing prices going up, Unless the balance of society is completely broken. this point, I am very confident.
21. another exciting Q: The central government's policy on the real estate around the local government can it? the rich and powerful people can be in the room price concessions on the issue of people it? be sustained high prices will lead to social crises Why?
when the Ice A: The local government land sales to make money is rooted in the system, the tax sharing reform, central to property rights taken away, lack of local funds, property rights and other powers does not, rely heavily on real estate to get the funding gap. This is the central fact well aware of, so, for local government land violations, the punishment is very weak. If you can not solve this fundamental problem, local government enormous benefits from the real estate seized by the impulse can not be suppressed.
, of course, taking away the central financial authority, local governments rely heavily on the Central, is conducive to centralized, in this case, the central policy is easier to local implementation, theoretically so. But very often, local government sham, is not being punished, and we now GDP performance assessment of cadres, trained this freakish deformity of the bureaucratic environment, some of the people's livelihood have not implemented, or be changed appearance. Therefore, China's economic problems stem from all the crux of the political reform lags behind.
because of our social forms of capital and power, highly integrated form, unless their rich and powerful people interests are threatened, otherwise they can not really make in the interests of the assignment of.
predatory if the high prices this situation continues, the crisis is only a matter of time.
22. Endless Thoughts Q: housing reform in 1998, the State paper, ) 4 times, and finance, the original units of housing construction funds can be transformed into areas of housing subsidies, free housing and housing can not meet the required standard area of the implementation of housing allowances of workers. family adopt different housing supply policy. lowest-income households or units leased by the government to provide low-rent housing; in low-income families buy affordable housing; other high-income families to purchase, lease market price of commodity housing. work, work in a state-owned enterprises, has not enjoyed welfare housing, has not seen the local governments and enterprises to implement policies related to housing subsidies to renters now. I ask why the state clearly the policies are not 10 years implement it?
when Ice A: You said the State Council No. 23, and this document has long been the developer of the original in 2003 by the Ministry of Construction officials concocted replaced by No. 18. I had The article spoke in detail of vested interests play may wish to extract as follows:
1998, China issued a supply system, Another 10% is low-rent housing provided by the government. As a result, fluctuations in house prices was very small.
23, the text of the general idea and the Western countries, stressed the housing characteristics of public goods, but also stressed the responsibility of the Government . If you go in accordance with this idea, our prices will not be to the point where now almost out of control. However, the August 12, 2003, drafted by the Ministry of Construction, the developers involved in the observations and recommendations Healthy Development aspects), while the real estate industry as a in profit). Since then, the basic housing supply into the hands of developers. Getting the 18th real estate companies have the text contents of ecstatic rejoicing. a real estate speculators, said excitedly: Real estate developers will be very happy. double monopoly power, and quickly became a group of riches.'s rich list in the calendar year, the first year the developer is also unknown, the second year on the rich list, the speed of accumulation of wealth, as if from heaven fall. But the sky will not fall pie, upstart groups (developers, corrupt officials, real estate of the rich) people money to buy a house from the plunder. Many buyers thus putting a heavy shackles. Calculation of housing appreciation in the vested benefits to them when the pressure on ordinary people, grief and tears were mercilessly ignored. vested interests of the people excited and then a huge pressure on housing in sharp contrast.
source lies, 18, the text has changed the structure of the real estate market supply and demand structure. No. 23, the housing people need only 10%, while the No. 18 position altered after the affordable housing means that, up to 90% of the population (the original need to be resolved by the affordable housing needs by 80% and 10% of the market to solve together) need housing to solve housing problem! to such a large crowd to the market, into the control of a small number of vested interests market, how can house prices do not rise?! not difficult to see in our decision-making process related to the housing market, some vested interests and even the manipulation through various means of corrupt officials and departments, about the relevant policies.
alternative housing market can not support functions. In as much as 90% of the population to solve their housing needs through the housing problem, housing security responsibility is already vacant. developers have clearly said, they are ;, high housing prices itself has become a rich game. large middle-income or sandwich layer, several times in housing prices after the buy has dashed the hope of most of the mm even if reluctantly bought a house, also reduced due to the heavy pressure on housing quality of life, reduced to low-income people (from the true quality of life point of view).
23. look at the eyes of the night asking: I am a resident of a small town, to see around mortgage to buy a house friends live frugally, living in poverty and look at the riches of the developers, the hearts of very bad, I really do not know when prices will come down, a small town like ours should occupy the majority of Chinese it, this is the people the truth. I heard, in order to to let people know what they are no longer suffering, no longer suffer.
chopper A: This is not a small number of people suffering, but spread to the community, or even part of the middle class.
24. piece of cloud droplets Rain asked: Q spicy Mr Jiang: We are all concerned about when is the best time to buy a house, if I have a spare house in Beijing, would like to dispose of next year, before leaving their children, I ask what the most appropriate shot? < br> spicy ginger A: now (around the spring during the exhibition) the price is a high point within two years, no doubt, but with the government's performance on the pursuit of GDP this year, the stock will continue to work on new increase, the trend of falling house prices in the second half is imperative, if the shot quickly added, it is possible, but may be more than two years later the price shot you, so time your shot performance tradeoffs. < br> 25. tiger woman asked: when the teacher, the teacher you are the chopper with a conscience, right now is very hate corruption, your corrupt officials if the initiatives put forward a rectification campaign will get the support of many people's livelihood and support!
chopper A: The official property declaration system to urge an early introduction to it is already a decent thing.
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